Four tropical disturbances, depression this week

 Four tropical disturbances, depression this week.

We’re almost to the peak of hurricane season, and right on cue, we’re watching four new disturbances in the Atlantic Basin. Two of which have a high chance of becoming a depression this week.

The front-runner is INVEST-92L, which is producing a disorganized cluster of storms this morning. 92L is expected to push off to the west-northwest in the central Atlantic over the next several days, where conditions will be favorable for it to become a tropical depression or storm. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a high 90% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Behind 92L, a vigorous tropical wave is forecast to push off the west African Coast today. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as it pushes westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Right now, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a high 80% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Computer models are bullish on development of these two waves, and while it’s too early to know if they will affect land, it’s worth mentioning models signal that steering currents will favor a path out to sea. Either way, both disturbances are 3000-4000 miles away from the United States, so plenty of time to watch!

Another tropical wave in the central Caribbean has flared up over the past day or so. Conditions are favorable for slow development over the next couple of days, however, once it reaches the western Caribbean midweek, upper level winds will become hostile, likely halting any organization. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a low 10% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Yet another area of disturbed weather has developed near Bermuda overnight. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for slow development as it slides west-northwest over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a low 20% chance of development.

Next names are PAULETTE, RENE, and SALLY. By the way, only six more names left until the Greek Alphabet! The only time that ever happened was the historic 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season.